American consumers continued their spending streak in June, extending retail sales growth to nine consecutive months despite ongoing economic uncertainty, according to the latest data from the National Retail Federation.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, based on anonymized credit and debit card transactions compiled by Affinity Solutions, showed total retail sales excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations rose 0.33 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared with June 2025, sales surged 9.41 percent, though the NRF cautioned that last year's unusually weak trading makes this comparison more favorable than typical.

Summer Shopping Season Heats Up

The June figures point to a robust start to the summer shopping season, buoyed by seasonal promotions and early back-to-school purchases. Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants in addition to autos and gas, increased 0.36 percent from May and were up an impressive 10.08 percent year-over-year.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay attributed the gains to consumers "taking advantage of summer sales events," noting that many shoppers "got an early jump on back-to-school shopping." He added that spending has been supported by "a durable labor market" and retailers' ongoing focus on keeping prices affordable despite persistent inflation.

First Half Performance Exceeds Expectations

During the first six months of 2026, total retail sales rose 6.81 percent compared with the same period last year, while core retail sales increased 6.84 percent. These figures suggest the American consumer remains more resilient than many economists predicted at the start of the year, when concerns about slowing job growth and elevated interest rates cast doubt on spending outlooks.

The NRF has forecast full-year 2026 retail sales growth of 4.4 percent, which would comfortably exceed the 10-year average of 3.6 percent. Today's data reinforces that optimistic projection.

Online Shopping Leads the Way

Digital commerce continued to outperform many store-based sectors, with non-store and online sales recording one of the strongest performances among monitored retail categories. This reflects consumers' sustained preference for digital shopping channels alongside traditional brick-and-mortar stores.

The data also showed broad-based gains across major retail segments, though growth varied by category. Health and personal care stores remained among the strongest retail performers, while clothing and accessories outlets saw sales rise 0.63 percent month-over-month and 13.65 percent compared to June 2025.

Labor Market Provides Foundation

Analysts have consistently noted that a strong labor market and wage growth have continued to support consumer demand throughout 2026. Despite slower hiring in recent months—June's jobs report showed just 57,000 new positions—the unemployment rate remains historically low, and workers who are employed continue to see wage increases that help offset elevated prices.

The retail sales data provides a counterpoint to recent consumer sentiment surveys, which have shown Americans feeling pessimistic about the economy even as their actual spending behavior remains robust. This disconnect between sentiment and spending has puzzled economists, though some attribute it to concerns about future uncertainty rather than present financial strain.

What It Means for the Fed

The solid retail figures arrive as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy moves. Continued consumer spending strength could give Fed officials pause as they consider whether inflation has been sufficiently tamed to warrant interest rate cuts. The central bank has kept rates elevated in response to inflation that proved stickier than expected, and today's data suggests demand-side pressures on prices remain present.

For retailers heading into the critical back-to-school and holiday seasons, the news is unambiguously positive. American consumers, it seems, remain willing and able to shop—even as they tell pollsters they're worried about where the economy is heading.