Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh steps to the podium Friday morning at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming for the first major speech of his tenure, and Wall Street is bracing for signals on where interest rates head next. Warsh, delivering remarks at 10 a.m. Eastern, faces a market that has grown increasingly nervous about whether the Fed can actually get inflation back down to its 2 percent target.

The stakes are high. July's Personal Consumption Expenditures reading held at 3.7 percent, nearly double the Fed's goal, and that stubborn number has shifted the conversation in financial markets from rate cuts to the possibility of a rate hike. According to CME Group's rate tracking tool, the probability of the Fed holding its target rate steady through September jumped from 52 percent to 64 percent in a single trading session after the inflation data landed. Futures tied to FedWatch data now imply roughly a 38 percent chance of a September rate hike, a number that would have seemed unthinkable a year ago when cuts were the dominant expectation.

Treasury yields climbed in the run-up to the speech as investors priced in the possibility that Warsh will use his platform to reaffirm the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation rather than signal any near-term easing, according to Bloomberg. That reaction alone shows how much weight markets are placing on his tone and word choice this week.

July PCE inflation held at 3.7 percent, well above the Fed's 2 percent target

Odds of the Fed holding rates steady through September rose from 52% to 64%

Futures markets now price in a 38% chance of a September rate hike

Treasury yields rose ahead of Warsh's speech as investors bet on a hawkish tone

What makes this speech different from past Jackson Hole addresses is the added wrinkle of financial innovation. Reports ahead of the event suggest Warsh plans to spend part of his remarks addressing programmable money and how emerging payment technology could reshape the mechanics of monetary policy itself, a break from the traditional Jackson Hole script focused purely on inflation forecasts and rate guidance.

For everyday Americans, the immediate impact will show up in the cost of borrowing. Mortgage rates, credit card APRs, and auto loan pricing all take cues from the Fed's benchmark rate and the market's expectations for where it's headed. A hawkish tone from Warsh, even without an actual rate change, tends to push those borrowing costs higher as lenders adjust to a "rates stay higher for longer" outlook.

Business owners watching their own borrowing costs and consumer spending should pay close attention too. A Fed that leans toward holding or hiking rates rather than cutting means tighter credit conditions persist into the fall, right as many companies plan their Q4 budgets and holiday season staffing.

The Fed's next official rate decision comes at its September meeting, and Friday's speech is widely viewed as the clearest window into Warsh's thinking before that vote. With inflation running well above target and markets skittish, this is shaping up to be one of the more consequential Jackson Hole speeches in recent memory.